It was two months prior that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
